World Cup 2026 · Group L · 17 June 2026
England vs Croatia: the AI predictions
Final score: England 4–2 Croatia.
All 5 models picked England. The result: England 4–2 Croatia — a England win.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | England win | Draw | Croatia win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | England | 45% | 28% | 27% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | England | 43% | 29% | 28% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | England | 51% | 28% | 21% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | England | 57% | 28% | 15% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | England | 40% | 32% | 28% | ✓ yes |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | England win | Draw | Croatia win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | England | 45% | 28% | 27% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | England | 40% | 31% | 29% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | England | 53% | 27% | 20% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | England | 55% | 25% | 20% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | England | 45% | 30% | 25% | ✓ yes |
What the models were thinking
Claude: England's higher FIFA ranking (4th vs 11th) and deeper squad give them an edge, though both sides enter with mixed recent friendly form including losses. Croatia's strong unbeaten qualifying and experienced spine keep this competitive.
GPT: England have the higher FIFA ranking and a strong recent run with several multi-goal wins, while their squad includes high-end midfield and attacking options. Croatia are also in excellent shape after an unbeaten qualifying campaign and strong recent results, so the edge is modest rather than decisive.
Gemini: England are ranked 4th in the world and boast a deep squad featuring elite talents like Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden, making them slight favorites. However, Croatia's unbeaten qualifying campaign and proven tournament pedigree under Zlatko Dalić suggest a tightly contested match.
Grok: England (rank 4) host Croatia (rank 11) with comparable recent form records; Croatia's unbeaten qualifying campaign is offset by England's superior ranking and home status.
DeepSeek: England's higher FIFA ranking (4th vs 11th) and deeper squad give them a slight edge, but Croatia's near-perfect recent form (8W-1D-1L) and unbeaten qualifying campaign suggest a tight match with a draw highly plausible.