World Cup 2026 · Group G · 16 June 2026
Iran vs New Zealand: the AI predictions
Final score: Iran 2–2 New Zealand.
All 5 models picked Iran. The result: a 2–2 draw.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | Iran win | Draw | New Zealand win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Iran | 55% | 27% | 18% | ✗ no |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Iran | 58% | 25% | 17% | ✗ no |
| Gemini (Google) | Iran | 65% | 22% | 13% | ✗ no |
| Grok (xAI) | Iran | 78% | 15% | 7% | ✗ no |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Iran | 70% | 20% | 10% | ✗ no |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | Iran win | Draw | New Zealand win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Iran | 55% | 27% | 18% | ✗ no |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Iran | 60% | 24% | 16% | ✗ no |
| Gemini (Google) | Iran | 62% | 24% | 14% | ✗ no |
| Grok (xAI) | Iran | 78% | 15% | 7% | ✗ no |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Iran | 65% | 25% | 10% | ✗ no |
What the models were thinking
Claude: Iran rank far higher (21st vs 82nd) with a solid unbeaten qualifying record and recent big wins, while New Zealand have shown poor form with several losses against varied opposition. Home advantage and the quality gap favor Iran, though New Zealand's occasional strong results (4-1 over Chile, win at Ivory Coast) keep an upset plausible.
GPT: Iran have a clear ranking and points advantage over New Zealand and stronger recent competitive indicators, including an unbeaten AFC qualifying snapshot with high goal output. New Zealand’s recent results show repeated losses against comparable or stronger opposition, though their upset win over Chile and Iran’s mixed friendlies keep the forecast short of high confidence.
Gemini: Iran holds a significant advantage in FIFA ranking (21st vs 82nd) and boasts a more experienced squad featuring established attackers like Mehdi Taremi. New Zealand's poor recent form, with seven losses in their last ten matches, makes an Iranian victory the most probable outcome.
Grok: Iran (rank 21, 1615 points) significantly outranks New Zealand (rank 82, 1281 points) and shows stronger recent results including a 5-0 win; NZ's form_last10 is dominated by losses.
DeepSeek: Iran has a significantly higher FIFA ranking (21 vs 82), stronger squad, and better recent form, making them clear favorites, though New Zealand's win over Chile shows they can be dangerous.