World Cup 2026 · Group I · 16 June 2026
Iraq vs Norway: the AI predictions
Final score: Iraq 1–4 Norway.
All 5 models picked Norway. The result: Iraq 1–4 Norway — a Norway win.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | Iraq win | Draw | Norway win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Norway | 13% | 22% | 65% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Norway | 20% | 25% | 55% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Norway | 10% | 20% | 70% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Norway | 22% | 28% | 50% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Norway | 13% | 22% | 65% | ✓ yes |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | Iraq win | Draw | Norway win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Norway | 10% | 20% | 70% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Norway | 22% | 27% | 51% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Norway | 11% | 21% | 68% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Norway | 18% | 27% | 55% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Norway | 12% | 23% | 65% | ✓ yes |
What the models were thinking
Claude: Norway are significantly higher ranked (31st vs 57th) with elite attacking talent like Haaland and Sørloth, and strong recent form including a 3-0 win over Italy. Iraq are competitive but the talent gap favors Norway, though World Cup pressure and Norway's recent draws leave room for an upset.
GPT: Norway have the stronger ranking profile, excellent recent results including two wins over Italy, and a high-end attacking group led by Haaland and Sørloth. Iraq’s form and qualification path show they are competitive, so a draw or upset remains plausible, but Norway look more likely to win.
Gemini: Norway boasts elite attacking talent like Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth, and their recent emphatic victories over Italy highlight their high ceiling. While Iraq showed resilience to qualify, their recent losses to teams like Jordan and Sudan suggest they will be outmatched by Norway's firepower.
Grok: Norway's higher FIFA ranking, far stronger recent results against quality sides like Italy, and elite attackers led by Haaland give them a clear edge despite playing away. Iraq's mixed form and lower-ranked squad make an upset unlikely.
DeepSeek: Norway possess a higher FIFA ranking, elite talent like Haaland, and dominant recent wins over Italy. Iraq’s squad lacks comparable top-level experience and only narrowly qualified via playoffs.