World Cup 2026 · Group D · 13 June 2026
USA vs Paraguay: the AI predictions
Final score: USA 4–1 Paraguay.
All 5 models picked USA. The result: USA 4–1 Paraguay — a USA win.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | USA win | Draw | Paraguay win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | USA | 45% | 27% | 28% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | USA | 47% | 28% | 25% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | USA | 56% | 26% | 18% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | USA | 58% | 25% | 17% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | USA | 60% | 25% | 15% | ✓ yes |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | USA win | Draw | Paraguay win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | USA | 46% | 28% | 26% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | USA | 48% | 27% | 25% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | USA | 54% | 26% | 20% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | USA | 57% | 28% | 15% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | USA | 55% | 25% | 20% | ✓ yes |
What the models were thinking
Claude: The USA are higher-ranked (16th vs 40th), play at home, beat Paraguay 2-1 in November 2025, and boast strong attacking form from Pepi and Balogun, though recent March losses to Belgium and Portugal raise concerns. Paraguay are competitive with quality wins, making an upset or draw realistically possible.
GPT: USA have the stronger FIFA ranking, more listed attacking production, and a recent 2-1 head-to-head win over Paraguay, which supports a modest home-win edge. Paraguay’s competitive recent results, including wins over Uruguay, Mexico and Greece plus several narrow losses, keep the draw and away-win probabilities significant.
Gemini: The USA benefits from home advantage, a superior FIFA ranking (16th vs 40th), and a recent 2-1 head-to-head victory over Paraguay in November 2025. While Paraguay is a competitive side, the strong club form of USMNT attackers like Ricardo Pepi and Folarin Balogun gives the hosts a distinct edge.
Grok: USA (rank 16) are clear favorites over Paraguay (rank 40) and defeated them 2-1 in November 2025; USA's recent results also include stronger wins against higher-caliber sides than Paraguay's mixed form.
DeepSeek: USA, as co-hosts, have home advantage, a higher FIFA ranking, and a recent 2-1 win against Paraguay. Paraguay's inconsistent form and the tough away environment make a home win the most likely outcome.