World Cup 2026 · Group I · 22 June 2026
France vs Iraq: the AI predictions
Final score: France 3–0 Iraq.
All 5 models picked France. The result: France 3–0 Iraq — a France win.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | France win | Draw | Iraq win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | France | 88% | 9% | 3% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | France | 79% | 14% | 7% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | France | 88% | 9% | 3% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | France | 87% | 11% | 2% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | France | 85% | 10% | 5% | ✓ yes |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | France win | Draw | Iraq win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | France | 90% | 7% | 3% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | France | 80% | 14% | 6% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | France | 90% | 8% | 2% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | France | 87% | 11% | 2% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | France | 78% | 17% | 5% | ✓ yes |
What the models were thinking
Claude: France are ranked 1st with elite attacking depth (Mbappé, Olise, Thuram) and strong recent form including wins over Brazil and Colombia, while Iraq sit around 57th and showed inconsistent results in qualifying. The large quality gap heavily favors France, though football's inherent variance leaves a small chance for a draw.
GPT: France are ranked 1st, in strong recent form, and have multiple high-output attacking players including Mbappé, Olise, Thuram and Dembélé. Iraq’s qualifying run and recent results show they are competitive, but the gap in squad depth and elite attacking quality makes France clear favorites.
Gemini: France enters as the top-ranked team in the world, boasting an elite squad featuring in-form stars like Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise. While Iraq had a commendable qualifying campaign, the massive disparity in overall quality and France's dominant recent form make a comfortable victory highly probable.
Grok: France (world #1, recent wins over Brazil/Colombia, strong qualifying record) vastly outclasses Iraq (ranked ~58th, mixed results vs weaker sides) at home.
DeepSeek: France's world No.1 ranking, star-studded attack (Mbappé, Olise, etc.), and strong recent form make them overwhelming favorites against Iraq, who are ranked much lower and have shown inconsistency.