World Cup 2026 · Group I · 23 June 2026
Norway vs Senegal: the AI predictions
Final score: Norway 3–2 Senegal.
3 of 5 models picked Norway; the exceptions: Grok (Senegal), DeepSeek (Senegal). The result: Norway 3–2 Senegal — a Norway win.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | Norway win | Draw | Senegal win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Norway | 37% | 27% | 36% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Norway | 38% | 27% | 35% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Norway | 39% | 29% | 32% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Senegal | 33% | 30% | 37% | ✗ no |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Senegal | 30% | 28% | 42% | ✗ no |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | Norway win | Draw | Senegal win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Senegal | 36% | 27% | 37% | ✗ no |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Norway | 39% | 28% | 33% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Norway | 38% | 30% | 32% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Norway | 48% | 30% | 22% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Norway | 45% | 28% | 27% | ✓ yes |
What the models were thinking
Claude: Both sides are evenly matched: Norway boast Haaland's elite scoring and strong recent form, while Senegal rank higher in FIFA and possess a deep, talented squad with excellent results. The slight home edge tips the balance marginally toward Norway in a close contest.
GPT: This looks close: Senegal have the higher ranking and strong recent form, but Norway’s recent results include major wins over Italy and they have elite attacking output led by Haaland and Sørloth. With no confirmed injuries for either side and only a nominal home designation, Norway get a narrow edge rather than a strong favorite status.
Gemini: Norway boasts incredible attacking firepower with Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth, highlighted by their recent dominant qualifying wins over Italy. However, Senegal is a highly experienced, higher-ranked side with a solid defensive core, making this a tightly contested matchup where a narrow Norway victory is slightly favored.
Grok: Senegal's superior FIFA ranking (12-14 vs Norway's 31-32) and deeper squad quality (Mané, Koulibaly, Sarr) outweigh Norway's home advantage and Haaland despite both sides' strong recent qualifying form.
DeepSeek: Senegal's higher FIFA ranking (12th vs 32nd) and slightly more consistent recent form, including a narrow loss only to Morocco, give them a marginal edge over Norway, who drew with New Zealand and lost to the Netherlands.