World Cup 2026 · Group F · 25 June 2026
Japan vs Sweden: the AI predictions
Final score: Japan 1–1 Sweden.
All 5 models picked Japan. The result: a 1–1 draw.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | Japan win | Draw | Sweden win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Japan | 50% | 26% | 24% | ✗ no |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Japan | 50% | 27% | 23% | ✗ no |
| Gemini (Google) | Japan | 60% | 23% | 17% | ✗ no |
| Grok (xAI) | Japan | 63% | 24% | 13% | ✗ no |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Japan | 65% | 22% | 13% | ✗ no |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | Japan win | Draw | Sweden win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Japan | 52% | 26% | 22% | ✗ no |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Japan | 49% | 27% | 24% | ✗ no |
| Gemini (Google) | Japan | 54% | 25% | 21% | ✗ no |
| Grok (xAI) | Japan | 58% | 27% | 15% | ✗ no |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Japan | 50% | 30% | 20% | ✗ no |
What the models were thinking
Claude: Japan are in excellent form with five straight wins including victories over Brazil, England and Scotland, and rank significantly higher (18th vs 42nd). Sweden have a quality striker in Gyökeres and recent wins over Ukraine and Poland, but their inconsistent run leaves Japan the favorite.
GPT: Japan have the stronger FIFA ranking and a much better recent run, including five straight wins with only two goals conceded. Sweden have attacking threat through Gyökeres and two recent wins, but their broader last-10 form and defensive record are less convincing.
Gemini: Japan enters the match in excellent form, boasting a five-match winning streak that includes impressive victories over Brazil and England, and holds a significantly higher FIFA ranking (18th) than Sweden (42nd). While Sweden has won their last two matches, their recent struggles against lower-ranked teams like Kosovo make Japan the clear favorite.
Grok: Japan (18th, form WWDLDWWWWW with wins over Brazil/England) outranks Sweden (42nd, form WWDLLLLDWW) and hosts the match.
DeepSeek: Japan's strong recent form (winning last five matches including against Brazil and England) and higher FIFA ranking (18 vs 42) make them clear favorites over a Sweden side that has been inconsistent with four losses in their last ten.