World Cup 2026 · Group I · 26 June 2026
Norway vs France: the AI predictions
Final score: Norway 1–4 France.
All 5 models picked France. The result: Norway 1–4 France — a France win.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | Norway win | Draw | France win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | France | 27% | 25% | 48% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | France | 22% | 24% | 54% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | France | 15% | 22% | 63% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | France | 18% | 22% | 60% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | France | 13% | 22% | 65% | ✓ yes |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | Norway win | Draw | France win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | France | 27% | 26% | 47% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | France | 25% | 27% | 48% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | France | 18% | 26% | 56% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | France | 18% | 27% | 55% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | France | 15% | 25% | 60% | ✓ yes |
What the models were thinking
Claude: France are ranked 1st with strong momentum and elite attacking depth (Mbappé, Olise, Thuram), making them favorites over a 31st-ranked Norway. However, Norway's Haaland-led attack and home advantage keep this competitive, so the away win is only a moderate favorite.
GPT: France are ranked 1st, have a 5-1-0 recent qualifying record with 16 goals scored, and arrive with strong attacking form from players such as Mbappé, Olise, Dembélé and Thuram. Norway’s recent results and Haaland-led attack make them a serious threat, including big wins over Italy, but France’s overall squad depth and momentum justify making them moderate favorites.
Gemini: France enters as the top-ranked team in the world with a star-studded squad and excellent recent form, including impressive wins over Brazil and Germany. While Norway boasts elite attacking talent like Erling Haaland and notable recent victories over Italy, France's superior depth and overall quality make them clear favorites.
Grok: France's #1 FIFA ranking, superior qualifying record (5-1-0), and recent wins over Brazil/Colombia indicate clear superiority over 31st-ranked Norway despite the home venue. Norway's mixed recent results and thinner squad depth make an away win the most probable outcome.
DeepSeek: France are ranked 1st and have superior squad depth, with Mbappé in excellent form; although Norway have shown strong results including wins over Italy, the French are favorites to win.