World Cup 2026 · Group I · 26 June 2026
Senegal vs Iraq: the AI predictions
Final score: Senegal 5–0 Iraq.
All 5 models picked Senegal. The result: Senegal 5–0 Iraq — a Senegal win.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | Senegal win | Draw | Iraq win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Senegal | 66% | 21% | 13% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Senegal | 60% | 24% | 16% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Senegal | 76% | 17% | 7% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Senegal | 78% | 16% | 6% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Senegal | 65% | 22% | 13% | ✓ yes |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | Senegal win | Draw | Iraq win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Senegal | 68% | 20% | 12% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Senegal | 60% | 23% | 17% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Senegal | 68% | 20% | 12% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Senegal | 82% | 12% | 6% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Senegal | 68% | 20% | 12% | ✓ yes |
What the models were thinking
Claude: Senegal are ranked far higher (12th-14th vs Iraq's 57th-58th), boast a deep squad of established players, and are in strong form, making them clear favorites. Iraq are competitive and well-organized, giving them a meaningful chance to draw or upset, but Senegal's superior quality favors a home win.
GPT: Senegal have a clear ranking and squad-strength edge, sitting around 12th-14th versus Iraq around 57th-58th, and their recent results include several convincing wins. Iraq arrive in solid form and have shown resilience through qualifying, so a draw is a meaningful risk, but Senegal remain the likelier winner.
Gemini: Senegal boasts a significantly higher FIFA ranking and a squad filled with top-tier talent compared to Iraq. While Iraq showed resilience to qualify via the playoffs, Senegal's dominant recent form and superior squad depth make them heavy favorites.
Grok: Senegal's top-15 FIFA ranking, superior squad depth with players like Mané and Koulibaly, and stronger form_last10 (WWDWWWWLWW) contrast sharply with Iraq's 57-58 ranking and more mixed recent results. Home advantage in this Group I fixture further tilts the outcome heavily toward Senegal.
DeepSeek: Senegal are ranked significantly higher (12th vs 57th) and have a stronger recent record, including wins over Egypt and Peru, while Iraq's form has been inconsistent with losses to Algeria and Jordan.