World Cup 2026 · Quarter-finals · 10 July 2026
Spain vs Belgium: the AI predictions
Final score: Spain 2–1 Belgium. Spain advanced.
All 5 models picked Spain. The result: Spain 2–1 Belgium, with Spain advancing.
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | Spain win | Belgium win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Spain | 74% | 26% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Spain | 60% | 40% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Spain | 62% | 38% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Spain | 73% | 27% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Spain | 72% | 28% | ✓ yes |
What the models were thinking
Claude: Spain's higher ranking, deeper and more in-form squad (Yamal, Pedri, Rodri), and dominant knockout wins over Portugal and Austria outweigh Belgium's decent run, whose weakened defense conceded four to the USA and struggled through the group. Belgium's threat via De Bruyne, Doku and Lukaku plus Courtois gives them a fighting chance, but Spain are clear favorites.
GPT: Spain have the stronger baseline profile as FIFA No. 2 versus Belgium at No. 9, and their tournament path has been more defensively secure: group winners with +5 GD, then 3-0 over Austria and 1-0 over Portugal. Belgium’s knockout wins over Senegal and the USA show real upside, but Spain’s balance and recent clean-sheet-heavy run make them the slightly clearer advancing pick.
Gemini: Spain has yet to concede a single goal in the tournament, showcasing an elite defense alongside their 2nd-place FIFA ranking. While Belgium's attack has been prolific, Spain's overall balance and superior form make them the favorites to advance.
Grok: Spain's 2nd FIFA ranking, deeper attacking squad (Yamal 16g/11a etc.), and stronger recent results outweigh Belgium's 9th ranking and thinner listed key players.
DeepSeek: Spain's higher FIFA ranking, strong squad with in-form attackers, and dominant knockout wins over Austria and Portugal contrast with Belgium's less convincing results and lower-ranked key players, making Spain clear favorites to advance.