World Cup 2026 · Group D · 26 June 2026
Türkiye vs USA: the AI predictions
Final score: Türkiye 3–2 USA.
All 5 models picked Türkiye. The result: Türkiye 3–2 USA — a Türkiye win.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | Türkiye win | Draw | USA win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Türkiye | 37% | 28% | 35% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Türkiye | 39% | 28% | 33% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Türkiye | 45% | 28% | 27% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Türkiye | 42% | 30% | 28% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Türkiye | 38% | 31% | 31% | ✓ yes |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | Türkiye win | Draw | USA win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | USA | 34% | 25% | 41% | ✗ no |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | USA | 23% | 25% | 52% | ✗ no |
| Gemini (Google) | USA | 30% | 28% | 42% | ✗ no |
| Grok (xAI) | USA | 28% | 30% | 42% | ✗ no |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | USA | 30% | 25% | 45% | ✗ no |
What the models were thinking
Claude: Both teams are closely matched (FIFA 22nd vs 16th) with strong recent form, but Türkiye are nominally at home with quality attackers in Yıldız, Çalhanoğlu and Güler, while the USA suffered heavy March 2026 losses to Belgium and Portugal. The margins are small, making this a near-even contest with a slight edge to Türkiye.
GPT: Türkiye have the stronger recent form in the brief, including seven wins and one draw in their last ten plus March 2026 playoff wins, while the USA enter after losses to Belgium and Portugal. The USA's slightly higher FIFA ranking and attacking depth keep this close, but Türkiye's momentum and recent head-to-head win give them a narrow edge.
Gemini: Türkiye enters the tournament with strong momentum under Vincenzo Montella, highlighted by recent play-off victories and a June 2025 head-to-head win over the USA. While the USA is ranked slightly higher, their mixed recent form and consecutive March 2026 defeats suggest Türkiye has the edge.
Grok: Türkiye enter with stronger recent form (WLWLWWWDWW) and home advantage after strong qualification results, while USA's form is mixed with two heavy March 2026 losses; Türkiye's ranking gap is modest (22nd vs 16th).
DeepSeek: Türkiye enters in better recent form, having won their last two World Cup qualifiers and beating the USA in their previous meeting in 2025. The USA's higher ranking and talented attack keep it competitive, but the March 2026 losses for the Americans slightly tip the scales toward Türkiye.