World Cup 2026 · Group G · 27 June 2026
New Zealand vs Belgium: the AI predictions
Final score: New Zealand 1–5 Belgium.
All 5 models picked Belgium. The result: New Zealand 1–5 Belgium — a Belgium win.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | New Zealand win | Draw | Belgium win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Belgium | 10% | 18% | 72% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Belgium | 8% | 18% | 74% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Belgium | 5% | 12% | 83% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Belgium | 12% | 18% | 70% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Belgium | 5% | 17% | 78% | ✓ yes |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | New Zealand win | Draw | Belgium win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Belgium | 10% | 22% | 68% | ✓ yes |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Belgium | 12% | 25% | 63% | ✓ yes |
| Gemini (Google) | Belgium | 7% | 18% | 75% | ✓ yes |
| Grok (xAI) | Belgium | 12% | 22% | 66% | ✓ yes |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Belgium | 10% | 18% | 72% | ✓ yes |
What the models were thinking
Claude: Belgium (9th, strong unbeaten run with quality attackers like Doku, Lukaku and De Bruyne) significantly outrank New Zealand (82nd, poor recent form with only two wins in ten). The talent and ranking gap heavily favors Belgium despite New Zealand's home advantage.
GPT: Belgium have a major quality and ranking edge, sitting 9th versus New Zealand’s 82nd, and come in unbeaten across the listed last 10 with strong attacking results. New Zealand have struggled in their listed recent matches, though wins over Ivory Coast and Chile keep the upset/draw probabilities non-trivial.
Gemini: Belgium boasts a vastly superior FIFA ranking (9th vs 82nd) and an unbeaten recent form (DWWWDWDWWD), highlighting their clear quality advantage. Conversely, New Zealand has struggled significantly with seven losses in their last ten matches, making a comfortable victory for Belgium highly probable.
Grok: Belgium's FIFA ranking (9th, 1734 points) and form_last10 (mostly wins) far exceed New Zealand's (82nd, 1281 points; form_last10 mostly losses), with Belgium's squad featuring De Bruyne, Lukaku and Courtois versus New Zealand's lower-profile players.
DeepSeek: Belgium's higher class and strong form (unbeaten in last 10) give them a clear edge over a New Zealand side with seven losses in ten matches.