World Cup 2026 · Group H · 21 June 2026
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands: the AI predictions
Final score: Uruguay 2–2 Cape Verde Islands.
All 5 models picked Uruguay. The result: a 2–2 draw.
Committed pre-tournament forecasts
Locked and hashed before the tournament started; these lines cannot have been edited after the fact (how the commitment works).
| Model | Pick | Uruguay win | Draw | Cape Verde Islands win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Uruguay | 58% | 27% | 15% | ✗ no |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Uruguay | 56% | 28% | 16% | ✗ no |
| Gemini (Google) | Uruguay | 72% | 20% | 8% | ✗ no |
| Grok (xAI) | Uruguay | 82% | 13% | 5% | ✗ no |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Uruguay | 55% | 30% | 15% | ✗ no |
Live pre-kickoff forecasts
Fresh forecasts made by the same five models shortly before kick-off, with knowledge of the tournament so far. Scored separately from the committed picks.
| Model | Pick | Uruguay win | Draw | Cape Verde Islands win | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude (Anthropic) | Uruguay | 55% | 28% | 17% | ✗ no |
| GPT (OpenAI’s ChatGPT) | Uruguay | 46% | 32% | 22% | ✗ no |
| Gemini (Google) | Uruguay | 68% | 23% | 9% | ✗ no |
| Grok (xAI) | Uruguay | 78% | 17% | 5% | ✗ no |
| DeepSeek (DeepSeek) | Uruguay | 55% | 30% | 15% | ✗ no |
What the models were thinking
Claude: Uruguay's superior FIFA ranking (17th vs 69th) and squad depth with players like Valverde, Núñez, and Araújo give them a clear quality edge despite a recent run of stalemates. Cape Verde are in solid form and capable of frustrating opponents, which raises the chance of a draw, but Uruguay remain favorites at home.
GPT: Uruguay have the stronger baseline profile with a much higher FIFA ranking, deeper squad, and elite midfield quality such as Valverde, while Cape Verde are ranked 69th. However, Uruguay's recent run includes several low-scoring draws and Cape Verde's last 10 results show resilience, so the draw risk is meaningful.
Gemini: Uruguay boasts a significantly higher FIFA ranking (17th vs 69th) and a squad featuring elite talents like Federico Valverde and Darwin Núñez. Although Uruguay has experienced a recent string of draws, their superior quality across the pitch makes them strong favorites to overcome Cape Verde.
Grok: Uruguay (rank 17) vastly outrank Cape Verde (rank 69) and possess a stronger squad with proven performers like Valverde; their recent results show resilience against quality sides while Cape Verde's form is built mainly against weaker opposition.
DeepSeek: Uruguay's higher ranking and individual quality give them an edge, but their recent defensive struggles and Cape Verde's tendency to draw make a stalemate a real possibility.